Introduction to Equatorial Guinea

Equatorial Guinea is a small nation located along the Central-West African coast and within the Congo Basin, comprising a mainland territory, Rio Muni, and five islands, where the capital, Malabo, is located. With a population of approximately 1.4 million people, the majority reside in urban areas, with only 26% of the population located in rural regions.1 With one of the fastest growing economies in Africa in the past decade, the discovery of oil reserves in the 1990s, made Equatorial Guinea the third-largest producer of oil in Sub-Saharan Africa, following only Nigeria and Angola.2 Equatorial Guinea is considered an upper middle income country, however this wealth is disparate, as few benefit from oil and gas revenues with a 67% national poverty rate (2022).3 The nation’s equatorial climate is characterized by high temperatures and humidity, with heavy rainfall throughout the year.4 Its geographical location makes it susceptible to extreme weather events, including hurricanes and floods. The small nation’s vulnerability is exacerbated by wide-spread corruption5 and its lack of political and economic transparency under Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo’s multi-decade presidency.6 The challenge of building lasting climate resilience in Equatorial Guinea is compounded by its complex colonial history under both Spain and Portugal7 , its current political environment, and its reliance on a petroleum-dependent economy.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Similar to the majority of Central and West African countries, Equatorial Guinea is extremely vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. In 2023 alone, heavy rains, flooding, droughts have destabilized over 4.5 million across the region.8 Its vulnerability to climate change is evident, with the ND-GAIN index ranking the nation low in climate-readiness, at 181st  of 185 nations.9 Equatorial Guinea is especially vulnerable to extreme floods brought on by climate change, exacerbated by its low-lying coastal regions and reliance on agriculture. Currently, floods affect on average about 0.17% of the total population of the country with future projects estimating an increase up to 0.19%.10 Equatorial Guinea is considered a medium-disk  coastal flood hazard region, meaning there is > 20% chance of potentially-damaging coastal flood waves occurring in the next 10 years.11 Although information on Equatorial Guinea specifically is limited vis-a-vis climate events and outcomes, broader trends across West and Central Africa12 afford some insight into the risks and challenges the country faces. Temperatures across the Central Africa region are projected to continue to increase by at least 1.0˚C by the 2050s, with increases of up to 4.5˚C under high emissions, compared to a 1980-2010 baseline.13  Increasing temperatures and greater rainfall variability are anticipated to alter the distribution, timing, and severity of climate-sensitive diseases such as meningitis and malaria. With the current trends, malaria is projected to spread into highland areas of the region, including Cameroon, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea.14 Between June and August 2022 alone, seasonal rains and floods across West and Central Africa  impacted 731,000 people in the region, causing significant damage to human life, property, land, and livestock, with approximately 35,000 houses destroyed, resulting in 126,000 people becoming homeless.15

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The climate crisis further exacerbates economic challenges by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across Equatorial Guinea, particularly in the form of droughts and flooding. Under present climate conditions, 1.8% of the total GDP is generated in areas affected by drought. This is equivalent to about 165 million USD per year of potentially affected GDP. Under future climate conditions and considering the present exposure, the percentage of GDP in areas affected by drought is approximately 2.8%. The local economy has a moderate vulnerability to floods. Annually, flood-affected areas contribute approximately 0.14% of the national GDP, equating to around 30 million USD per year.10 Equatorial Guinea is also one of six nations that is home to the Congo Basin, a crucial global rainforest responsible for  atmospheric carbon absorption valued at $55 billion annually,  roughly equivalent to 36 percent of the combined GDP of all six countries.16

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Equatorial Guinea submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2022, aiming for ambitious emissions reduction targets. The updated NDC sets a goal to reduce emissions by 35% by 2030 and by 50% by 2050, relative to 2019 levels.17 Equatorial Guinea's vision for its forests, led by the Ministry of Finance, Economy and Planning and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forests, Livestock, and Environment, is outlined in its National REDD+ Strategy.18 This strategy aims to contribute to the global fight against climate change and support national development through a focus on competitiveness, sustainability, integrated land management, food security, and social and gender equity. The REDD+ Strategy targets the aforementioned reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, maintenance of 93% of the current forest cover, and reduction of the annual forest degradation rate to 0.45%.19 Further, the Equatorial Guinea Red Cross participates in the IFRC Global Climate Resilience Program, which aims to significantly enhance locally led, climate risk reduction and adaptation efforts to mitigate the impact of  climate-related disasters and bolster community resilience. The program targets 500 million people in 100 of the most climate-vulnerable countries, prioritizing the least supported and marginalized communities. The initiative combines four  primary objectives: (1) enhancing climate-smart disaster risk reduction, anticipatory action, and preparedness; (2) mitigating public health impacts of climate change; (3) addressing climate displacement; and (4) promoting climate-resilient livelihoods and ecosystem services.20

Necessary Changes

Addressing the climate crisis and building climate resilience in Equatorial Guinea necessitates substantial political commitment and transparency. While the nation's current initiatives are ambitious and hold the potential for significant impact, there have been limited reports of tangible progress or success thus far. Achieving the necessary changes will require the establishment of a social and political foundation that empowers the general populace and moves away from the current practices that favor political elites, which exacerbate and overlook the country's environmental challenges. Key steps should include revising and disseminating the manual of administrative, logistical, and financial procedures, developing a public strategy and action plan for mobilizing resources, and implementing robust policies to prevent fraud, corruption21 , discrimination, and harassment and instead centers vulnerable populations, particularly in coastal regions and rural communities. International support and collaboration are crucial to achieving lasting climate justice and equity in Equatorial Guinea.