Introduction to El Salvador

El Salvador, the most densely populated and the smallest country by land area in Central America, has a population of 6.3 million people1 , of which 25% is rural.2 El Salvador has a mixed economy and the country’s GDP is primarily driven by the services sector, which accounts for 59.6% of the total share3 , followed by industry and agriculture. With a coastline of 190 miles along the Pacific Ocean and a largely tropical savanna climate, El Salvador has been experiencing increased frequency of storms, floods, and droughts.4 These climate disasters are worsening the migration crisis in El Salvador and exacerbating the plights of asylum seekers who are fleeing violence, economic instability, and persecution in the region5 , including under the current state of emergency and concomitant human rights violations in El Salvador.6 With Mexico serving as a transit route to the United States for those fleeing, Mexico significantly increased the militarization of its southern border7 in response to pressure from the United States.8 This has further endangered the lives of vulnerable migrants from El Salvador and neighboring countries. By the end of 2050, a staggering 17.1 million people are projected to be internally displaced in Latin America due to climate change.9 Among the nations grappling with this challenge, El Salvador stands at the forefront, experiencing a significant increase in the number of climate migrants both within its borders and those seeking refuge beyond its boundaries.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

El Salvador is moderately vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 103 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.10 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are storms, droughts, floods, and epidemics, which account for almost 74% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.11 Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 3 years of storms with the number increasing to 8 between 2001 and 2020. In 2020 alone, 198,000 El Salvadorians were affected by storms. Over the past decade, El Salvador has been grappling with the devastating impact of severe and recurring droughts, leaving a trail of human suffering and socio-economic challenges behind. In 2018, a staggering 386,610 people felt the direct consequences of these climate disasters, while a few years earlier, in 2014, an even larger number, approximately 700,000 people, were adversely affected by the relentless drought episodes.12 Between 2008 and 2022, 34 disaster events were reported in El Salvador, amongst which floods displaced 65,000 people and storms displaced 53,000 people.13 Alongside climate related disasters, violence and conflict have displaced 1.9 million El Salvadorians, and the persistent threat of severe and recurring climate impacts has the potential to worsen existing tensions, exacerbate resource scarcity, and further deepen socio-economic disparities in the country.14

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of El Salvador is US$ 32.49 billion15 , with more than 26 percent of its population living below the national poverty line16 , and 17 percent of its urban population living in informal settlements.17 In the past three decades, climate change has taken a devastating toll on the economy of El Salvador , resulting in a staggering loss of productivity amounting to over US$2.2 billion.18 Projections indicate that if immediate action is not taken, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could suffer a steep decline of up to 7% by the year 2030.19 In 2022, El Salvador experienced the devastating impact of Storm Julia, which brought destruction and hardship to the most at-risk communities. The storm's aftermath was severe, with over 400 homes damaged, leaving families displaced and struggling to rebuild their lives. Additionally, around 7,000 hectares of crops were destroyed, causing significant losses to farmers and disrupting the country's agricultural sector, which is vital for food security and the economy. As a result of the storm, an estimated 180,000 people were left food-insecure.20 In 2020, storms Amanda and Cristóbal resulted in losses and damages worth over USD 28 million. These recurrent natural disasters have put a tremendous strain on the country's resources, making it challenging to respond effectively and recover from the disastrous impacts to various sectors of the economy. Beyond the immediate devastation, these recurring climate disasters further exacerbate the country's existing social and economic crises. El Salvador has been grappling with issues such as poverty, inequality, unemployment, and crime, which have already strained its ability to provide adequate services and opportunities for its underserved citizens.

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

El Salvador, constituting 0.08 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.01 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.21 El Salvador pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 640 Kt CO2eq annual reduction in the energy sector by 2030 compared to the 2019 scenario. In the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use AFOLU sector, the goal is a cumulative reduction of 50,857.5 Kt CO2eq between 2035 and 2040 compared to 2015. El Salvador has also outlined plans to enhance carbon sinks in agriculture, contingent on substantial financing from international and national sources. In order to combat the impacts of climate change, El Salvador is prioritizing nature-based climate actions and utilizing ecosystem-based adaptation strategies that address environmental challenges, enhance local livelihoods, and promote sustainable land-use practices.22 In 2017, El Salvador achieved a historic milestone by becoming the first nation in the world to enforce a comprehensive ban on metal mining after a prolonged and arduous battle to safeguard its dwindling water resources from the detrimental effects of mining operations.23

Necessary Changes

Despite El Salvador’s minimal contribution to climate change, the disastrous impact on the country is a grave reminder of the disproportionate burden being borne by developing countries. The intersection of climate-induced hardships and existing vulnerabilities in the form of violence and conflict underscores the urgent need for comprehensive solutions and international cooperation to address this complex humanitarian crisis in El Salvador. In addition to facilitating legal pathways for climate displaced people, it is critical for both Mexico and the United States to reassess their asylum procedures to ensure the provision of protection, care, and shelter to migrants fleeing conflict, climate disasters, or economic crisis.  Furthermore, as El Salvador strengthens its protection mechanisms, legal framework, and policies to address the internal displacement crisis24 , it is crucial that the policies be made people-centric, taking into account the needs and well-being of the affected individuals. The state of emergency needs to be lifted, rights reinstated, and reparations provided to victims. It is imperative for the international community to step up its efforts and offer comprehensive assistance to effectively address the plight of those affected by displacement. Collective action is needed to provide humanitarian aid, resources, and expertise to support the implementation of robust protection mechanisms and sustainable solutions. Furthermore, it is crucial to establish a comprehensive, international framework that recognizes “climate refugees” and provides binding safeguards for their protection.25 As climate change drives increasing numbers of individuals to leave their homes in search of safety and security, it becomes crucial to create accessible and lawful avenues for these climate migrants to seek refuge and protection in other countries.