Introduction to Djibouti

Djibouti, a coastal nation located in the Horn of Africa and one of the smallest countries in the continent, has a population of 1.12 million people1 , of which 22% is rural.2 Ranked 171 out of 190 countries in UN’s Human Development Index3 , Djibouti exhibits a relatively high GDP per capita of US$ 3136.2, but a low life expectancy of 62 years4 and a high infant mortality rate of 46 per 1000 live births.5 The country has a mainly hot desert climate, and the terrain is characterized by arid and dry conditions.6 The country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly droughts, floods and storms. Djibouti's economy is heavily reliant on its strategic location as a gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.7 It has a growing port industry, and the country is an important transshipment hub for goods traveling between Asia and Europe.8 The service sector contributes 77.3% to Djibouti’s economy followed by manufacturing and agriculture. With arable land comprising less than 0.04% of Djibouti’s total land area and the country experiencing very low average annual rainfall, the country imports almost all its food.9 Djibouti’s vulnerability to climate impacts and the resulting food insecurity is exacerbated by its pervasive cycle of poverty and the lack of economic diversification within the nation.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Djibouti is moderately vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 75 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.10 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are drought, flood, storms and epidemics, which account for 100% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.11 Between 2001 and 2020, there were 4 separate years of droughts, and 3 separate years of floods. In addition to the oceanic impacts of climate change such as rising sea levels, floods, and potential tsunamis, the country is susceptible to flash floods due to its volcanic terrain, characterized by seasonal riverbeds and tributaries.12 In 2019 alone, 250,000 Djiboutians were affected by flood with 10,000 internally displaced, while in 2020, the number of those affected stood at 110,000.13 The urban areas along the country’s coastline are at high risk of flooding with one third of the population residing in high-hazard risk zones.14 In the year 2022, Djibouti encountered its most severe drought in more than a hundred years.15 About 170,000 people, 17% of the country’s population, suffered from this unprecedented climate event. In addition to Djibouti’s rural and low-income population being at risk due to climate impacts, the 35,000 refugees, predominantly originating from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen, in the country’s refugee settlements and urban areas are also highly vulnerable to the climate crisis.16  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Djibouti is US$ 3.52 billion17 , with one of the highest levels of inequality in the region. Djibouti stands out as one of the world's most water-scarce nations, grappling with a severe freshwater resources crisis, which is worsened by climate change. A prolonged drought from 2008 to 2011 led to GDP loss of 4%, while the agriculture sector lost half its GDP.18 About 33% of the population lives in high-risk zones, and floods and droughts chronically affect 35% of the economy.19 The anticipated increase in sea levels due to climate change is expected to result in significant land loss along the northern and eastern coastlines of Djibouti. During the period spanning from March to June 2023, an estimated 250,000 individuals were anticipated to undergo acute food insecurity within Djibouti. This concerning situation particularly places a heavier burden on rural communities, where an average of 40 percent of the population faces high levels of acute food insecurity.20  In the country’s capital city by the Gulf of Tadjoura, more than a third of the population live in informal settlements, marked by the absence of adequate infrastructure, essential services, and official recognition.21 The impending impacts of climate change will exacerbate the hardships faced by these underserved communities. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Djibouti, constituting 0.01 percent of the world's population, is responsible for less than 0.01 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.22 Djibouti pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 40% of its greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and an additional 20% with substantial international support.23  In its NDC, Djibouti emphasized efforts to achieve economic development, diminish drought susceptibility, enhance water access, safeguard biodiversity, and bolster rural resilience. Djibouti is implementing a large-scale initiative on flood defense infrastructure in the country’s Tadjourah and Dikhil regions.24 Through this project, the government is developing flood walls and also pursuing nature-based solutions such as the restoration of mangrove forests in the coastal zones.25 Djibouti's government has enacted legislative changes and adopted the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) to protect refugees, and has been lauded for its effective implementation, especially in integrating refugees into national education, health, and employment systems.26

Necessary Changes

Djibouti is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. It is now critical for the global community to support Djibouti in a just transition that is inclusive of its underserved, low-income, and at-risk communities. The food insecurity crisis in Djibouti underscores the pressing need for targeted interventions and support to mitigate the challenges faced by these vulnerable segments of the population. The impacts of climate change are also expected to heighten challenges faced by those in Djibouti’s informal settlements, primarily due to insufficient infrastructure, scarce resources, and elevated poverty rates. It is imperative for the international community to assist Djibouti in enhancing the climate resilience of its high-risk and underserved urban communities through financial support, technical expertise, and capacity-building opportunities. Furthermore, while Djibouti is implementing effective measures to support refugees, it is vital to adopt an approach that also integrates climate resilience considerations into the overarching framework of refugee response and resettlement initiatives.