Introduction to the Republic of the Congo 

The Republic of the Congo is a coastal country in Central Africa. Its population of 5.97 million1 is about 31% rural.2 The Republic of the Congo has an equatorial climate with northern regions experiencing more rains than the south.3 The Congo Basin, a tropical rainforest spanning much of Central Africa, also covers much of the country, creating a tropical climate in many regions.4 The Congolese economy is predominantly based on the mining and extractive industries (oil and gas) which accounts for about half of the country’s GDP and over 80% of exports,5 followed by other sectors (agriculture, fishing, and forestry)6 which employ around 80% of the population.7 In 2009, the government signed an agreement to lease 200,000 hectares of land to South African farmers to reduce its dependence on imports,8 and in 2018, the Republic of the Congo joined the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.9 Resource exploitation and the reliance seen in the Republic of the Congo on the oil and gas industry is a remnant of the French colonial legacy and policies created to reward private resource extraction monopolies.10  

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

The Republic of the Congo is ranked 136th out of 179 countries, making it the 43rd most climate vulnerable country in the world.11 The country is most vulnerable to increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, and increased risks of floods and droughts.12 Between 2011-2020, the mean annual temperature in the Republic of the Congo has increased by 0.6ºC. Precipitation has not increased significantly but rainfall has become more erratic and extreme, increasing its unpredictability.13 These climate events have created a slowdown in agricultural productivity and a higher incidence of heat-caused and vector-borne diseases, like malaria.14 Severe flooding in 2019-2020 affected 100,000-160,000 Congolese people in the Northern region of the country, resulting in 48% of people in the Likouala region in Northern Congo being food insecure.15 Additionally, heavy rainfall in September created flooding that destroyed critical infrastructure like health centers, roads, and schools, and reduced access to safe drinking water.16 In 2022, 42,000 people were displaced due to a flood.17 This internal displacement crisis is compounded by the political instability in neighboring countries like the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with the country housing 50,000 refugees and asylum-seekers as of 2022.18  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The Republic of the Congo has a GDP of $14.62 million.19 Although elsewhere in the world, the climate crisis is anticipated to slow growth and reduce GDP, in the Republic of the Congo, the prevalence of the oil and gas sector has put the country on a path of continued economic growth. However, in 2015-2020, the country experienced a -5.2% contraction in their growth rate, primarily due to the fall in oil prices at that time.20 Because of this volatility, the government had to assume debt, resulting in their debt-to-GDP ratio doubling from 47.4% in 2014 to an estimated 103% in 2020.21 However, recently, the Russia-Ukraine war has resulted in higher oil prices, resulting in significantly expanded government revenues.22 The country still faces steep economic and non-economic impacts due to the climate crisis. The 2019-2020 floods required approximately $30 million to respond to the situation, not including costs beyond the time of estimation (January 2020) and any future infrastructure costs.23 Additionally, the extractive industry is creating huge amounts of deforestation within the Congo Basin, losing 59.4 kilohectares of tree cover in 2022, equivalent to 38.6 Mt of CO₂ emissions.24 Not only is deforestation a huge contributor to the climate crisis but there are about 43,380 indigenous peoples in the Republic of the Congo who rely on the forest for their basic needs, like housing and healthcare.25 Additionally, the agricultural industry which employs most of the poorer Congolese people (predominantly women) is expected to suffer due to the climate crisis, with losses totaling 5% of the projected output in 2030.26 The climate crisis will especially affect crops like millet, bananas, and other fruits and vegetables, which are crucial to subsistence as well as exports.27 Malaria, exacerbated by climate change, is also creating a public health crisis in the Republic of the Congo, with 28% of deaths occuring due to malaria.28 Women and children under 5 are most vulnerable to these vector-borne diseases so they are further marginalized. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

The Republic of the Congo’s NDC is focused on strengthening the resilience of the agricultural sector, promoting sustainable forest management, improving water services, preserving biodiversity, creating climate-resilient health systems, and reducing disaster risk through fossil fuel mitigation.29 Their unconditional goal is to reduce emissions by 17.09% by 2025 and their conditional goal is to reduce emissions by 39.88%, dependent on external financial support.30 Sectors targeted in the NDC include energy, agriculture, forestry, land use, water, health, coastal zones, and tourism.31 The Updated NDC shows a strong commitment to being cognizant of and taking action towards gender equality within all of the goals, which is very positive.32 Internationally-funded projects serve to support the climate action outlined in the NDC as seen in the work done by the Adaptation Fund that educates those who rely on agricultural livelihoods, predominantly women and indigenous groups, on climate change and climate-smart agricultural practices.33 Similarly, Climate Investment Funds approved a $10 million project to create the necessary regulatory, technical, and capacity frameworks needed to enable sustainable forest management activities.34 Regarding forced migration, the Congolese government is a signee to many human rights and refugee rights treaties, like the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.35 However, the government has done very little to ease forced migration, violently deporting refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo rather than creating the appropriate infrastructure to provide for their basic needs.36 The Republic of the Congo’s NDC highlights many ways in which a more sustainable agricultural industry will be pursued (improving the efficiency and competitiveness of agrifood value chains, encouraging private investment, etc.) but makes no mention of sustainable energy or a shift away from the mining and extractive industry, which make up a bulk of the country’s emissions.37  

Necessary Changes

The Republic of the Congo already has a strong climate plan and has large sums of international investment in developing sustainable infrastructure. However, the unstable political conditions and the lack of a plan for an energy transition demonstrates their half-hearted commitment to climate resilience. Internally, the Republic of the Congo must show a greater commitment to renewable energy and reduce their reliance on the oil and gas industry. Despite economic growth, this profit is not going towards households, though, as disruptions in the supply chain and rising food prices have only exacerbated food insecurity and increased inflation.38 Such economic swings occur because of the Republic of the Congo’s huge dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, which can be changed with a greater investment in sustainable energy sources and diversification. Additionally, the international community must also change the way they value natural resources in order to support the Republic of the Congo in its crucial duty to preserve the Congo Basin. The Congo Basin is a key carbon sequestrator, with the part of the forest found within the Republic of the Congo absorbing about 1.5% of annual global carbon emissions.39 However, international carbon markets do not appropriately compensate the Republic of the Congo for this key role in sequestration, instead incentivizing further exploitation of their natural resources. A shift in the carbon economy must occur in which such roles are rewarded and encouraged, rather than seen as a loss in potential income. Such actions should also compensate indigenous Congolese communities who play a large role in the stewardship and preservation of the Congo Basin. Internationally-backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground to ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition, and also help bolster the participation of directly impacted local communities in decision-making. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, the Republic of the Congo’s climate resilient future can also be sustained and expanded.