Introduction to Colombia

Colombia is a country located in the northwest region of South America. Its population is 51.871 million people and is about 18% rural.2 Currently, 42.5% of the country lives below the nationally-determined poverty line, 10% of the population lives in slums, and the income shared by the lowest 20% accounts for 3% of the national income.3 The poorest region is Choco with 19.5% of its population living at or below $1.90 a day.4 Colombia’s climate varies with cold zones in high elevation areas above 2,000 m, temperate zones between 1,000 and 2,000 m, and tropical zones below 1,000 m.5 As of 2020, 15.93% of Colombia's labor force is employed by agriculture, 20.15% employed by industry, and 63.92% employed by service.3 A highly extraction-dependent economy, raw materials make up 51.8% of Colombia’s exports. Its top exports include petroleum, coal, coffee, and gold, and its top export partner is the United States,6  which makes up 28% of its total exports, a number significantly higher than any other country.7 Moreover, Colombia’s debt is high as private debt makes up 106.03% of GDP and government debt accounts for 55% of GDP.8 As Colombia continues to face the severe inequalities because of historical social and political instability, pressure by international presences to focus on raw, extractive industries, and high debt amount, Colombia is exceedingly  vulnerable to climate-induced disasters.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

With respect to Colombia’s climate vulnerability, it ranks 29 out of 191 countries in the 2024 Risk Inform Index with a rank of 26 in terms of heat and hazard exposure and rank of 22 for vulnerability.9 Within the population, 85% live in areas exposed to climate-induced and natural disasters, with marginalized groups such as small farmers, Indigenous or Afro-Colombian communities, and internally displaced people particularly burdened by these climate impacts.10 The poorest region of Colombia, Choco, also remains one of the most vulnerable regions to climate impacts.11 The frequency of climate-related events has only increased, as from 2008 to 2014 there were 294 disaster events reported and from 2015 to 2022 this increased to 382 disaster events reported. Overall, there have been over 3.9 million internal displacements between 2008 and 2022 as a result of 676 disaster events.12 Among such events, flooding and landslides in 2010 led to over 2.4 million displaced and $5.2 billion in damages.13 Colombia is also highly vulnerable to recurring extreme events with 84% of its population and 86% of assets exposed to 2 or more natural disaster events.14 Finally, more than half a century15 of conflict and guerilla warfare have internally displaced 6 million individuals, particularly from within Colombia’s already-impoverished rural areas.16  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Colombia has a GDP of $343.94 billion USD. However, Colombia has experienced significant economic costs as a result of climate change,with an estimated $1.1 to 1.2 billion dollar loss in GDP annually due to climate-related impacts.17 In terms of its agricultural sector, Colombia has been exposed to long and short term impacts. Long term impacts include deforestation and later deterioration of its arable land due to the rapid expansion of agricultural land. Short term effects of increasing temperatures, climate variability such as La Nina and El Nino and increasing floods. For example, in a 2010-2011 La Nina event, major flooding resulted in a decrease in crop yields such as rice, vegetables, and corn as well as a loss of 1.165 million ha of land for livestock.17 In all, it is expected that by 2050, 14% of GDP related to agriculture will be affected. Further, 80% of crops, including high value export or perennial crops, and 60% of cultivated land will be impacted. Specialized crops such as coffee, cocoa, and fruits will also be severely susceptible to climate-related increase in the prevalence of diseases, pests, and bacteria.3 Within Colombia’s tourism sector, long term effects to this industry include sea level rise as well as coastal erosion. For example, 50% of the Caribbean coastline is suffering effects of coastal erosion as a result of climate-induced impacts as well rampant expansion of the tourism industry in coastal areas of Cartagena, Barranquilla, Santa Marta, and Riohacha.18 In terms of sea level rise, it is expected that flooding will affect 4,900 km2 of low-lying coastal regions and 5,100 km2 of inland regions.18 Finally, warming events are expected to continue triggering  coral bleaching and  a loss of valuable coral reef systems.18 Overall, GDP could see a loss of 1.5 - 2.5% of GDP, decrease in household income, and reduction of household consumption by at least 2.1 to 3.1% by 2050.17

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Colombia, a country that only makes up 0.54% of global emissions, has made significant commitments to reduce its environmental impacts. By 2030, Colombia has committed to reduce its emissions by 51% under the Business as Usual Scenario of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, Colombia has set a target for carbon neutrality by 2050 and a reduction of black carbon by 40% as compared to 2014 levels. This commitment to a reduction in emissions has been supported by Colombia’s 2021 national legislation known as the Energy Transition Law that expands tax benefits to more renewable energy options as well as enacts new regulations on geothermal energy production.19 Within the agricultural and forestry sector, between 2001 and 2021, Colombia is estimated to have lost around 3.2 million ha of forest. In that way, Colombia has made further progress to reduce deforestation by 30,000 ha per year.20 Moreover, Colombia has committed to implementing 100% of its Zoning and Management plans to protect and restore coastal regions including adaptation strategies for mangroves and seagrass beds. As inequality across Colombia remains prevalent, Colombia has made plans to implement just transition policies through focusing on equitable workforce transitions, food security, poverty alleviation, territorial inclusion, human rights, and gender equality.21 Colombia has also made significant progress in the inclusion of migrants through policies such as guaranteeing Temporary Protection Status (TPS) for the next 10 years to support economic and cultural integration of Venezuelans into Colombia’s society.22 Just recently, Colombia has presented a monumental bill, currently making its way through the legislative branch, that would recognize the status of climate refugees and therefore give legal protection as well as priority to many welfare services.23  

Necessary Changes

Colombia has aimed to decrease its emissions, reduce deforestation, implement restoration strategies for its vulnerable ecosystems, and support equitable integrations of displaced individuals. However, as Colombia’s debt remains severely high and extreme income inequality persists, this limits the capacity of the national government as well as the vulnerable populations to support themselves in adaptation to climate-related disasters. It is therefore imperative for the international community to support Colombia financially in its efforts to effectively incorporate a just transition. Moreover, it remains even more important for external countries to alleviate extractive pressures on Colombia’s industries that have historically led to exploitation as well as social injustices to vulnerable communities. For example, Colombia’s mining industry has repeatedly come at the cost of human rights violations within indigenous communities, land infringements, and health costs to these frontline groups.24 Similarly, as Colombia progresses in its transition to a net zero economy, Colombia needs to diversify its exports to reduce the reliance on extractive, exploitative sectors such as its mining industry. With that in mind, in order to accomplish a just transition, Colombia must further democratize as well as stabilize its economic system to prioritize the successful participation of its front-line labor force in the decision-making process. As informality remains highly prevalent with the labor market and industrial sector, such as the fact that 60% of rural land is held without formal property titles,25  an expansion of rights and protections for other vulnerable communities such as informal laborers and rural landowners remains imperative. With the support of the international community as well as necessary action on Colombia’s part, the country will be able to realize a just and sustainable transition.