Introduction to the Central African Republic

The Central African Republic is a landlocked country in Central Africa. Its population of 5.46 million1 is about 57% rural.2 The Central African Republic has two distinct climate regions: the tropical, humid south and the semi-arid Sahelian north.3 The southern border shared with the Democratic Republic of the Congo is marked by the Ubangi River, which is where many southern riverine communities are found as well as the capital, Bangui.4 The Central African Republic economy is primarily agricultural and self-subsistent, with the cultivation of crops like cassava, corn, millet, sorghum, rice, squashes, and peanuts done by women and meant for individual family consumption.5 However, after French colonialism, a national economy around agricultural exports and the introduction of cash crops, like coffee and cotton, emerged. The French colonial influence can also be seen in the creation of an elite indigenous ruling group (consisting of southern riverine people like the Ngbaka, Yakoma, and Ubangi) which has created rising tensions between ethnic groups. Additionally, religious tensions have also contributed to a lot of conflict within the Central African Republic, with a majority of the population practicing Christianity and about 10% practicing Islam.6                All of these legacies only exacerbate the present-day climate crisis in the Central African Republic, creating gaping inequalities and an unstable, violent political system. 

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

The Central African Republic is ranked 159th out of 179 countries, making it the 20th most climate vulnerable country in the world.7 The country is most vulnerable to floods, wildfires, and drought, with the central and southern parts of the country (where most of the urban centers are located) expected to be most impacted by excess rainfall.8 Since the 1970s, the mean temperature in the Central African Republic has increased by 0.35ºC per decade and since the 1990s, precipitation has increased by 8%.9 For example, in July 2022, heavy rains in the Bangui area displaced almost 22,000 people.10 In 2022, 77,000 Central Africans were displaced due to a flood and a storm.11 Conflict has also created massive food insecurity and disrupted agricultural activity. This, in turn, leads to migration which creates further conflict with resident farmers, especially in the northwestern region of the country.12 Furthermore, extreme climate events disproportionately affect indigenous communities. The M’bororo Fulani people, who are nomadic herders, have been severely impacted by drought as they rely on pastoral land and water resources to raise livestock, with disputes over land resulting in violence with other farmers. The Litho people are not able to gather the vegetation needed for a healthy diet due to drought and are facing malnutrition and displacement.13 Thus, conflict, food insecurity, and disproportionate impacts on indigenous groups should be centered in designing climate solutions. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The Central African Republic has a GDP of $2.51 million, one of the lowest in the world.14 The Central African Republic is very fragile due to a lack of social cohesion, the concentration of political power, social and regional inequalities, the accumulation and mismanagement of resources by the elite, and constant conflicts.15  Such dynamics exacerbate the Central African Republic’s vulnerability to the climate crisis and challenge recovering from climate-related disasters. For example, projected costs related to the climate crisis for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage over 2020-2030 are expected to be $393.8 million a year, much more than the country can afford.16 In 2021, the per capita GDP growth of the Central African Republic was estimated to be declining by 2.2%, impoverishing millions of people every year.15 With such intense climate costs, GDP growth will only further decline and place more Central Africans under the poverty line. Furthermore, 72% of the country is employed in the agricultural sector and even more rely on agriculture for food sourcing so such disasters will create large instability and further food insecurity.17 For example, flooding due to heavy rainfall will likely cause riverbank erosion, landslides, and the waterlogging of agricultural fields, resulting in crop failures.18 Traditionally, Central African women are the ones who cultivate the crops and, thus, more likely to be negatively affected by such climate impacts.19 Finally, rising temperatures and increased rainfall will also increase vector-borne diseases like yellow fever, dengue, and malaria, exacerbating the challenges faced by the country.20

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

The Central African Republic’s NDC is focused on promoting low carbon development through renewable energy, fostering agroecology, devising sustainable ways to capture natural resources, and improving damage done to the environment.21 Their unconditional goal is to reduce emissions by 10% by 2030 and their conditional goal is to reduce emissions by 25%, dependent on additional investment.22 Sectors targeted in the NDC include energy, agriculture, forestry, land use, waste, and industry.22 In 2017, the Central African Republic government, in conjunction with the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, worked to take inventory on sources of emissions and mitigate short-lived climate pollutants like black carbon and methane.23 This project has been very successful in identifying high-emission sectors to take mitigation action within, including the energy, waste, agriculture, bushfire, and land-use sectors. Additionally, regarding forced migration, in 2022, the Central African government, alongside Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of the Congo, Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan drafted the Yaoundé Declaration to legitimize and encourage rehabilitation of Central African refugees.24 However, this declaration failed to address gender-based violence and implement proper accountability efforts.25 Similar international efforts, like those taken by the International Office for Migration, have struggled with funding and actual rehabilitation but succeed in providing refugees basic supplies.26 The underlying violence and political instability in the Central African Republic does not create a context in which necessary climate action can be taken and only furthers the displacement crisis.

Necessary Changes

The Central African Republic has taken strong action to identify sectors that contribute to emissions but the unstable government and violent conflict within the nation hinders effective climate action. However, there are still actions the Central African Republic government can take to address the climate crisis. One such strategy involves investing in and scaling up sustainable agriculture and renewable energy projects.27 Additionally, emphasizing regenerative and democratized food systems will also improve gender disparities,28 help address food insecurity,29 minimize poverty levels, and restabilize the Central African society. The government must also take action against compounding costs of the climate crisis, like increased disease, gender inequalities, and indigenous disparities.30 While domestic action is needed, given the political strife as well as their lack of resources, international action will be crucial to creating a sustainable Central African Republic. In 2022, the UN had deployed the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which was successful in quelling conflict in targeted regions to enable the return of displaced persons.31 Such action must be expanded and continued as conflict will only compound displacement and inequalities created by the climate crisis. Additionally, international investment in projects to increase sustainability in the agricultural and energy sector will have great impact. Collectively, internationally-backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground to ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition, and also help bolster the participation of directly impacted local communities in decision-making. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, a stabilized and climate-resilient Central African Republic can also be sustained and expanded.