Introduction to Burundi

Burundi, a landlocked country in East Africa’s Great Lakes region, has a population of 12.9 million people,1 of which 86% is rural.2 Ranked 187 out of 190 countries in UN’s Human Development Index,3 Burundi exhibits the lowest GDP per capita in the world at US$238.4,4 and a high infant mortality rate of 42 per 1000 live births.5 The country's capital sits on Lake Tanganyika, Africa's second largest freshwater lake. The livelihoods of millions who depend on it are endangered by changes in the lake’s ecosystem caused by climate change, deforestation, overfishing, and hydrocarbon exploitation.6 Burundi largely has a tropical savanna climate, while areas at higher elevations experience a subtropical highland climate.7 In recent decades, the East African country has been experiencing increasingly severe extreme weather events such as flood, drought and epidemics. These events are significantly affecting Burundi's primary economic sectors, notably the agricultural sector, which employs 86% of the workforce8 and constitutes 28% of the nation's GDP.9 Gold makes up the most significant portion of the nation's export earnings at 30%, with coffee and tea following closely behind.10 Burundi's colonial legacy, marked by deforestation and economic dependence on cash crops, unsustainable land use practices, and ethnic tensions, continue to influence its vulnerability to the climate crisis.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Burundi is vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 57 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.11 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are floods, epidemics, storms and droughts, which account for over 93.3% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.12 Between 1980 and 2000, the country experienced 1 year of flood and 1 year of drought with the number increasing to 11 and 3 between 2001 and 2020. In 2018 alone, 47,956 Burundians were affected by flood, while in 2020, the number stood at 36,762.13 Between 2008 and 2022, 253 disaster events were reported in Burundi, amongst which floods displaced 193,000 people and storms displaced 43,000 people.14 Increasing water levels in Lake Tanganyika have resulted in the displacement of farming communities in Burundi, as the rising levels encroach upon their households and once-productive agriculture lands.15 Approximately 90% of the internally displaced population in Burundi is driven to displacement primarily as a result of climate-related disasters.16 Additionally, Burundi hosts 86,000 refugees and asylum seekers,17 with the majority originating from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, who are living in precarious conditions and are highly vulnerable to the climate crisis.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Burundi is US$ 3.07 billion,18 with a staggering 87% of the population living below the poverty line of $1.90 per day,19 and a youth unemployment rate of 65%. The agriculture sector in Burundi, employing over 10 million Burundians and characterized by subsistence farming and a lack of adaptive capacity, faces significant challenges due to the climate crisis. It is anticipated that severe floods and extended periods of drought will lead to a decrease in agricultural yields, ranging from 5% to 25%.20 Climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods have resulted in an estimated GDP loss of 5-17% per event.21 These incidents are expected to worsen in frequency and severity, posing a substantial threat to water resources and food security in a country already experiencing extreme vulnerability in these sectors. Climate change is serving as a threat multiplier, trapping communities in Burundi's hilly regions, where 90% of the population lives, in a relentless cycle of fragility and susceptibility to poverty.22 Increasing heavy rainfall and deforestation resulting in severe landslides is exacerbating existing issues of land degradation, and leading to land disputes, social unrest, and a cycle of vulnerability in post-conflict Burundi.23  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Burundi, constituting 0.16 percent of the world's population, is responsible for less than 0.01 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.24  Burundi pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 3.04% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and 15.65% with substantial international support.25 Identified areas for adaptation and resilience efforts include agriculture, energy, ecosystem, water and health. Notably, Burundi's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) stands out for its emphasis on integrating health measures into its climate mitigation strategy. It aims to tackle potential challenges such as the potential rise in vector-borne diseases and flooding, and includes a noteworthy plan to power 455 healthcare facilities using solar energy.26 Furthermore, the "Adapting to Climate Change in the Lake Victoria Basin" project in Burundi underscores the country's commitment to nature-based solutions for addressing climate change impacts. This initiative is making a significant impact by providing crucial funding and training opportunities to local farming cooperatives, with the goal of combating soil erosion and enhancing climate resilience within the region.27

Necessary Changes

Burundi is demonstrating its commitment to attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality objectives through noteworthy endeavors in climate mitigation and adaptation. It is now critical for the global community to support Burundi in a just transition that is inclusive of its underserved, low-income, and at-risk communities. Immediate national-scale investments are critical to rehabilitate rapidly deteriorating landscapes, safeguard land rights, and enhance agricultural productivity. A comprehensive approach to sustainable landscape management needs to be adopted, strengthening both the climate and economic resilience of vulnerable communities at the forefront of the climate crisis.28 Burundi currently lacks a comprehensive adaptation plan to address climate change impacts in its coastal zones and disaster risk management efforts.29 Without a well-defined adaptation strategy and implementation program, these areas face escalating risks due to sea level rise, coastal erosion, and increased storm intensity, which could result in further damage to infrastructure, displacement of communities, and economic losses. It is an imperative for the international community to support these efforts by providing financial resources, technical expertise, and capacity-building initiatives. Furthermore, given that Burundi is endowed with rare earth minerals, which are crucial for facilitating the global transition toward clean energy, it is vital for the international community to acknowledge the potential social and environmental ramifications associated with mineral extraction, and work to ensure that these costs are not borne by the most vulnerable countries.