Introduction to Brunei Darussalam

Brunei Darussalam, a small, biodiverse country nestled on the island of Borneo in Southeast Asia, has a population of 458,9491 , of which 21% is rural.2 Situated less than 5° north of the equator, the country faces humidity year-round with a uniform tropical rainforest climate.3 Brunei is no stranger to extreme weather events, facing significant vulnerability to flash flooding, torrential rains, and landslides.4 The capital city of Bandar Seri Begawan houses nearly ⅔ of the country’s population and is Brunei's political and economic hub.5 Due to its abundance of crucial fossil fuels like oil and natural gas, Brunei has long had high economic success, currently boasting the second-highest GDP per capita among ASEAN countries.6 This is mainly done through the industry and services sectors, which comprise 61.8% and 38.8% of the country's GDP, respectively, while the agricultural sector only accounts for 1.2%.7 Brunei is an Islamist monarchy where Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah has held absolute power over the country for over 58 years.8 The Malay and Chinese ethnic groups comprise 67.4% and 9.6% of the population, while the other 23% comprises other Asian and indigenous groups.9

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

With a low-lying topography and flat coastal plain, susceptibility to monsoons and heavy rains, and its entire northern border facing the South China Sea, Brunei is extremely vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis. Under a current high emissions scenario without any significant adaptations, nearly 2,000 people are expected to be affected by sea level rise-induced flooding between 2070 and 2100 in Brunei.10 In just 2022, over 207 flood incidents were reported—the highest since 2016—and this figure is expected to keep growing.11 Brunei faces two main types of flooding: slow-onset floods and flash floods. Slow-onset floods are seasonal, non-life threatening, and typically occur in the country's interior, sparsely populated region.12 On the other hand, flash floods are more common in developed, urbanized areas due to overwhelmed infrastructure from heavy rainfall, which will increase vulnerabilities as sea levels continue to rise.12 Under a high emissions scenario, with this increased possibility of flooding, mosquito populations' mean relative vectorial capacity to transmit dengue fever rises from a mean baseline value of 0.92 to near 1.24—an increase of approximately 35%.13 Rising temperatures also play a looming threat, as seen in 2019, when there were 1,655 forest fires reported in the country.14 Under a high emissions scenario, there is also expected to be a rise in heat-related deaths for those 65+, reaching nearly 51 per 100,000 by 2080, compared to a baseline of 0 per 100,000 between 1961 and 1990.13

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Brunei is $15.13 billion,15 while the GDP per capita is $32,962.16 Although the country has faced financial success, it is extremely vulnerable to external shocks as its economy is subject to a single-point failure, where oil and gas accounts for 91% of total commodity exports and 76% of government revenue.17 The climate crisis can further exacerbate this economic situation since areas like the Belait District, home to the country's oil and gas industry, are located on low-lying terrains and are highly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise.18 The country experiences around $31.31 million in annual losses through flooding, which accounts for nearly 3.62% of its annual social expenditure.19 This can lead to increased rates of flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion, impacting billions of potential dollars in revenue and the local economy and livelihoods of people in the area.19 It is estimated that if Brunei does not switch to and subsequently follow a sustainable green energy program, it can lose more than 66% of its GDP.20 Further, nearly fifteen industrial parks are less than a few dozen kilometers from the coast—placing them in imminent danger of sea level rising.21

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Despite being responsible for less than 0.025% of global GHG emissions, Brunei is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of the climate crisis due to its low-lying position on the coast.22 Towards domestic mitigation, Brunei has unconditionally pledged to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% relative to BAU levels by 2030.23 The country aims to meet 30% of its overall power generation with renewable energy by 2035, primarily through solar energy sources.24 As part of the Heart of Borneo agreement, a treaty designed to protect the biodiversity of the rainforests in Borneo, 58% of Brunei’s land area is conserved25 and has 72% forest coverage that absorbs 97% of domestic GHG emissions.26 According to the Brunei Darussalam National Climate Change Policy (BNCCP), the country also plans to plant 500,000 new trees by 2035, begin imposing carbon taxes on emissions from the industrial sector, have electric vehicles comprise 60% of all vehicles by 2060, and increase educational awareness on climate change.27 The Community-Based Disaster Risk Management began in 2010 and engaged over 1,642 Bruneians in community awareness, while the School-Based Disaster Risk Management program involved 1,178 teachers and students in disaster preparedness.14  

Necessary Changes

Although Brunei is already on a commendable track toward sustainable goals, it must continue to identify and implement new adaptations for its future, as the climate crisis will undoubtedly impact the country. The first large change must come in the energy sector, as the country only has a singular solar power plant that provides a mere 0.05% of Brunei’s energy supply, while 99.5% comes from fossil fuels, illustrating the enormous potential for developing new renewable energy sources.28 Similarly, Brunei must truly work on initiatives to diversify away from extractive industries as part of global transitions to just and equitable low-carbon economies, as regardless of what statements were made by the government, the non-oil and gas private sector has only grown by 2.6% on average since 2010.29 This diversification can be done by focusing on other lucrative sectors such as tourism, finance, high-tech manufacturing, logistics, fishing, and other complementary industries.30 Further, the domestic EV market in Brunei is still relatively small compared to what its lucrative goals suggest, as there were just under 20 EVs in the entire country as of late 2022.31 While promoting EV usage should be a priority for the country through actions such as rolling out extensive charging networks and incentivizing citizens, the government should emphasize renewable energy public transportation infrastructure, which provides a less-extractive mechanism for lowering carbon emissions and reducing traffic.31 It is also suggested that the country adopt and place warning systems and sirens across its coastline to inform the public of potential natural disasters while developing other long-term monitoring systems to keep track of future dangers.18 Finally, adaptation efforts for the country must be more unified, as current efforts are incremental, reactive, and small-scale, while Brunei must instead focus on future impacts and long-term risks.32 Since large government debt is not a sizable issue for the country, a large reason for this failure is the population's limited capacity, insufficient technological and technical capabilities, and infrastructure, proving that international assistance and training are necessary.32