Introduction to Brazil

The largest country in South America by both land and population, Brazil has a population of 215 million people1 , of which 12% is rural.2 Brazil’s climate zones vary by geography, with a mix of tropical rainforest and tropical monsoon climate in the north, tropical Savanna climate in the central regions, hot semi-arid climate in the east, and humid subtropical climate in the south.3 The country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly storms, floods, drought, and wildfires. Brazil has a mixed economy, with the service sector contributing 58.9% to the GDP4 , followed by the industry and agriculture sector. Endowed with vast mineral resources such as gold, iron, copper, aluminum, and niobium, Brazil ranks among the world’s top five mineral producers.5 With the gas and oil industry contributing 13% of the country’s GDP, Brazil is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. The country is also the world’s largest exporter of beef, which remains the main driver of deforestation in the country’s Amazon rainforest.6  The largest rainforest in the world, Amazon is crucial for regulating global climate patterns and supporting biodiversity. While deforestation decreased by 33.6% in the first six months of the recently elected president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva7 , illegal ranching, mining and farming activities continue to drive deforestation and dispossess the region’s indigenous communities.8 The violent extraction of mineral resources in Brazil and the country's reliance on an export-oriented agriculture sector are rooted in its Portuguese colonial past, and continue to displace indigenous populations and exacerbate Brazil's susceptibility to the climate crisis.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Brazil is vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 27 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021.9 The major climate hazards experienced by the coastal nation are flood, storm, wildfire, drought, epidemic, and extreme temperature, which account for over 77% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020.10 In 2019, wildfires affected a staggering 10 million people11 with rates increasing by 30% compared to the previous year and spikes closely linked with a rise in deforestation.12 Between 2008 and 2022, 404 disaster events were reported in the South American nation, amongst which floods internally displaced 2.5 million people and storms displaced almost a million more.13 In 2022, Brazil registered the highest number of internal displacements within the Americas, with 708,00 people forced to flee their homes as a result of natural disasters. In early 2023, heavy rains in Brazil's southeastern Sao Paulo state led to landslides and flooding, resulting in 57 deaths and extensive damage in coastal towns. Over the last three decades, extreme rainfall events have significantly increased in this region.14 Furthermore, Brazil is hosting over 426,000 refugees from Venezuela15 , who have fled their country due to economic collapse, political turmoil, and social unrest, and their already precarious situation is worsened by the impacts of the climate crisis.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Brazil is US$ 1.92 trillion16 , with more than 29 percent of its population living below the national poverty line, and 8.4 percent living in extreme poverty.17 It is one of the most unequal countries in the world. With poverty rates among black and mixed-race populations almost twice that of whites, and higher proportion of poor people in the northeast and north regions, economic disparity in the country shapes how such climate impacts are felt.18 3 million Brazilians are at risk of falling into extreme poverty due to climate impacts, while climate change, deforestation, and pasture expansion could cost Brazil $184 billion by 2050, about 9.7% of its present GDP.19 Due to continued deforestation and climate impacts, Brazil could reach a tipping point beyond which the Amazon would not have adequate rainfall to support ecosystems, water supply, and carbon storage.20 The nation faces an annual average loss of $2.6 billion due to extreme weather events. The prevalence of mudslides and severe floods resulting from heavy rainfall has increased, and with 15 percent of Brazil’s urban populations living in informal settlements21 , these extreme weather events are particularly affecting low-income neighborhoods and shantytowns built on vulnerable hillsides. 

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Brazil, constituting 2.73 percent of the world's population, is responsible for 0.96 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission.22 Brazil pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 and 50% of its emission by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.23 Furthermore, the country has a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.24 In its NDC, the adaptation measures are geared towards reducing vulnerability in sectors such as water, energy, and food. Based on its National Adaptation Plan, the measures focus on improving water management, diversifying of energy resources, strengthening agriculture for food security, and building urban resilience to protect the country’s infrastructures. Recently, Brazil made a commitment to eradicate deforestation by 2030 as part of a global effort to safeguard the environment.25 The plan also includes measures to streamline land titles, encourage sustainable agriculture, and promote eco-friendly initiatives alongside crime prevention.26 Furthermore, Brazil's initiative to voluntarily move Venezuelan refugees and migrants from its border state to various prosperous cities across the country has positively impacted over 100,000 individuals with improved opportunities for better living standards, autonomy, and integration.27  

Necessary Changes

Brazil is demonstrating its commitments to achieving emissions reduction and carbon neutrality goals by engaging in initiatives on both climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the assessment from the Climate Action Tracker indicates that Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) is “insufficient”, highlighting the inadequacy of the country's current climate policies and commitments in aligning with the critical 1.5°C warming limit.28 To effectively bridge this gap, it is imperative for the international community to support Brazil in a just transition that considers the needs of its at-risk communities. In response to the hydroelectric power shortages induced by the 2021 droughts, Brazil directed its efforts towards increasing the use of fossil gas in the energy mix. This strategy overshadows the more favorable progress demonstrated by alternative renewable energy sources within the nation, such as wind and solar power. As Brazil charts its course to address energy needs, it is crucial for the country to navigate this transition in a manner that is aligned with its climate goals. Recognizing the potential environmental, economic, and social benefits of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, Brazil should foster a diversified clean energy portfolio that not only provides reliable power but also considers impact on communities that might be affected by shifts in energy policies. Furthermore, there is a pressing need for the Brazilian government to shift its focus from the extractive and ecologically destructive sectors like mining, and instead redirect its efforts towards cultivating a sustainable, regenerative and inclusive economy.