Introduction to Belize

Belize is a country in the coastal, northeastern part of Central America, situated in the Yucatan Peninsula with over 1,060 small islands named under its jurisdiction. Its population is about 405,2721 and 54% of the population is rural.2 Belize has a high level of poverty of 35.7%3 of its population, of which the brunt is experienced by certain districts including the Toledo district and ethnic groups such as the Mayas.4 Belize’s climate is primarily tropical monsoon climate in the northern region of Belize and a tropical rainforest climate in the southern region with higher amounts of precipitation than any other part of the country. The prevalent industries represented are tourism with 15%5 of GDP, agriculture and forestry accounting for 9.1% of GDP, wholesale & retail trade with 14.4% of GDP, and 14.4% of GDP made up of secondary level economic activity (construction, manufacturing, etc.).6 The tourism sector, when taking into account indirect as well as induced effects, could represent up to 41.3% of total GDP.7 The main outputs of the agricultural sector include sugar, citrus and bananas8 and this industry employs 11.3%9 of the population with agricultural exports representing 80% of total economic outputs.8 Other industries of employment include tourism with 13.3% of the labor force, wholesale and retail trade with 16.1%, and informal employment accounts for around 37.2% of the employed population.9 Due to Belize’s relatively recent independence from Britain in 1981, and the longstanding and persistent foreign dominance of capital, the country’s capacity to address the climate crisis is hindered.10 For example, as of 2015, its debt burden is  82.08% of total GDP.11 While Belize possesses a diversified economy, due to its unique colonial past, dependence on tourism, high financial burdens, and limited diversification of its exports, Belize is highly vulnerable to external shocks such as climate-related disasters.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Belize is highly impacted by the effects of climate change with a rank of 81 out of 191 countries in the 2024 Risk Inform Index.12 Due to its largely low-lying coastal terrain, Belize is vulnerable to sea level rise, hurricanes, flooding, and other climate-related disasters. More specifically, climate-related disasters have only increased in intensity and frequency as, between 2008-2014, only two disaster events were reported. However, from 2015-2020, 7 reported disaster events took place, causing over 15,000 internal displacements during this time.13 The most commonly reported disasters are storms, such as hurricanes. For example, due to back to back hurricanes in November of 2020, hurricane Eta and hurricane Iota affected over 60,000 individuals and led to severe flooding that caused damage to residential property, agricultural land, and infrastructure.14 Certain regions are relatively susceptible to such climate impacts., For example, the Toledo district, as the poorest region in Belize, is highly dependent on low-paying, subsistence agriculture as well as growing labor in  extractive plantation work for export. This region is therefore one of the most vulnerable regions of Belize, especially due to its reliance on a highly susceptible agriculture system exposed to the effects of climate variability, land erosion, and flooding.15  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Belize currently has a GDP of 2.82 billion, with steep economic costs due to climate-related disasters.16 For example, in 2000, Hurricane Keith caused damages of over 45% of its GDP. More recently, Hurricane Earl was estimated to have cost Belize 11% of its GDP in 2016 and led to an overall debt of 100% of its GDP following this disaster as the country attempted to rebuild after its devastating impacts.17 In general, Belize, has lost an average of 4% of its GDP per year due to short- and long-term climate disasters, with impacts varying across region and economic sector.18 For example, between 2006 and 2016, extreme weather events led to a loss of $232 million USD within the agricultural sector, exacerbating the food insecurity of those who rely on agriculture for their daily needs, and hitting regions such as Belize’s southern Toledo region especially hard.19 By 2100, Belize could see a 7-8% decrease in rainy season length, 6-8% increase in dry season length, and 20% increase in short length, intense rainfall.20 Other long term impacts include saltwater intrusion and sea level rise that pose high risks to the low-lying rural regions of Belize. As a result, and in conjunction with unsustainable agricultural practices of deforestation and mono-crop, commercial farming, Belize is projected to lose 10-20% productivity in its agricultural sector by 2100 which will likely lead to severe drops in GDP.21 Furthermore, Belize’s reliance on the ecotourism industry–including its UNESCO-recognized coral reefs–renders the country’s economy acutely vulnerable to climate impacts.21 For example, Belize could see a $24 million annual loss within its ecotourism industry as a result of climate-related impacts such as saltwater intrusion, erosion, and sea level rise, as well as ocean acidification and coral bleaching.21

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Although Belize contributes less than 0.01%22 of the global share of emissions, Belize has committed to actions that will reduce cumulative emissions by 5.6 MTCO2e by 2030 and total reduction of annual emissions by 1 MTCO2e. As part of this, it has committed to an industry specific emissions reduction within the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector with a 63% increase in removal of emissions and targeted infrastructure investment into improving the current electricity grid. This has involved the development of a National Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector that works to increase the adaptive abilities of this sector. Moreover, Belize has taken the stance of increasing the capacity of its aquaculture and fisheries sector through research, training, and diversification to support sustainability of these industries. Along with building adaptive capacity of the health and tourism sectors targeted investment, planning, and infrastructure buildup, Belize has taken significant steps to improve the resilience of coastal communities. By 2025, Belize has committed to improving the coastal resilience of coastal communities through strengthened oversight of human development of coastline areas as well as early warning systems to prevent habitat loss and mitigate impacts of disasters. In combination with its current migration policies, new investment from the Ministry of Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the European Union (EU) of over $2 billion USD have supported a program known as “Building Climate Change Resilience and Social Integration of Displaced People in Settlements of Western Belize.” This strategy works to support displaced communities in western Belize in their integration into new host communities as well as increase their adaptive resilience.23 However, in total, it must be noted that the programs discussed in Belize's NDC are expected to cost over $1.4 billion USD between 2021 and 2030.20

Necessary Changes

Belize has made significant commitments to reduce emissions, implement adaptive resilience strategies in its coastal communities, update emergency warning systems, and implemented strong methods to support the reintegration of displaced individuals into society. However, due to the significant financial burden of debt and high costs to accomplish these climate adaptive and mitigation measures, the international community must act to contribute increased funding to support Belize in its efforts towards a just transition. Also, due to its dependence on countries due to its debt as well as unique history of colonization, it remains imperative that the international community goes further to alleviate Belize’s debt burden as well as implement strategies to reduce external pressures on Belize’s economy. This includes strategies against the increase of commercial, plantation farming that have led to the erosion and land degradation of crucial arable land. At the national level, Belize must commit to a diversified, local economy focused on supporting a just transition of Belize’s economy. The economic transition, in order to be equitable, must prioritize the participation of the individual voices of its laborers and low-income households relying on local resources and industry for their survival. This remains imperative to maintain local economies such as ecotourism as well as enhancing the agency of local residents to participate in the outcomes of these key industries. Through a sustainable and just transition, Belize can realize its goals in creating an equitably adaptive society for its residents and those reliant on its resources.