Belgium

Introduction to Belgium

Belgium, officially the Kingdom of Belgium, is a high-income nation with approximately 11.79 million people and a 2023 GDP (PPP) per capita of about $69,073 USD.1 The country ranks 23rd on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Country Index, indicating moderate vulnerability coupled with strong institutional readiness, since it has a vulnerability score of 0.335 and a readiness score of 0.592.2 Less than 2% of the highly urbanized population of Belgium live in rural areas. This reflects its concentration of infrastructure, industries, and population centers in low-lying regions.3 Its geography, which ranges from coastal plains in the northwest, to a central plateau, to the hilly Ardennes in the southeast, exposes the country to a mix of sea-level rise, riverine flooding, and intense rainfall.4 While not among the countries producing transnational climate refugees, Belgium is increasingly likely to experience internal climate-induced displacement as floods, storms, and heatwaves intensify.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

During the past several decades, Belgium has been confronting a dramatic rise in major climate-related disasters, which have increased from 17 such disasters reported between 1980 and 2000 to 39 between 2000 and 2018.21 This represents a more than twofold increase in both frequency and severity. This is consistent with the broader European trend of stronger floods, storms, and heatwaves caused by global warming.

The floods of July 2021 were one of the most catastrophic climate-related disasters in the history of Belgium. Between the 13th and 16th of July, 271.5 millimeters of rain fell within a radius of 48 hours in places such as Jalhay, which is equivalent to a return period of 200 years.5 Climate attribution studies established that global warming made such an event between 1.2 times and 9 times more likely.6 Flooding impacted 209 of the 262 municipalities within Wallonia, causing the death of 39 people and damage to over 45,000 homes, with 559 bridges and major roads destroyed.7 About 40,000 people were displaced, while thousands were forced into temporary shelters.8 The floods also exposed the uneven social geographies of vulnerability: the poorer sections of the population and the elderly were more exposed to damage and thus showed slower recovery.9 Long-term investigations of psychological health showed that more than half of flood-affected households reported long-lasting psychological distress, thus turning the whole event into a social and environmental crisis.10

In Belgium, although the floods did not result in international migration, they nevertheless heightened internal mobility pressures, with many displaced people struggling to find new homes and restore livelihood.11 This follows the more general climate migration dynamics evident across Europe, as wealthy countries increasingly are afflicted by displacement within their own borders rather than experiencing external refugee arrivals.12

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The economic cost of the 2021 floods was over 5.2 billion euros, making it the costliest natural disaster in Belgian history.13 When aggregated with Germany and the Netherlands, the total cost for Western  Europe’s floods surpassed 44 billion euros.14 These losses include not only direct property damage but also long-term productivity declines and public infrastructure repair costs. Strong insurance penetration softened the financial blow; however, 15% of the households affected by this disaster lacked comprehensive coverage.15

Beyond floods, mounting costs from heatwaves and drought continue to plague Belgium. Taking the year 2018 as a starting point, summer heat extremes have quadrupled in frequency, driving up health-related mortality and putting energy grids under stress.16 A 2024 European Commission report projected that, without intensified adaptation, annual climate-related damages could reach 2% of national GDP by 2050.17 Additionally, a 2025 report by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Belgium pointed out “climateflation” —inflation accelerated by weather shocks and energy disruptions—as the emerging macroeconomic challenge.18 These compounding effects make it clear that climate impacts in Belgium extend beyond immediate disaster recovery into the nation’s economic stability and social welfare.19

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Belgium’s ND-GAIN readiness score of 0.592 indicates a strong institutional capacity to adapt.20 However, the 2021 floods exposed governance blind spots in coordination, data sharing, and public participation.21 Studies by the United Nations University’s Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS) highlight six major weaknesses in Belgium’s flood-risk governance: fragmented responsibilities, poor foresight analysis, and insufficient long-term recovery learning.22

Belgium’s response to these challenges and risks has involved restoring natural riverbanks, wetland extension, and water-retention basins across Wallonia and Brussels. Belgium’s National Adaptation Plan and alignment with EU flood directives lead to nature-based flood management.23 The European Commission supports the actions through its “Water-Wise Belgium” initiative as part of a broader eco-hydrological transition.24 According to climate modeling run by the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, extreme rainfall intensity will rise under high-emission scenarios, particularly in summer cyclonic systems.25 These projections highlight the need for incorporation of climate projections into zoning, land use, and infrastructure design.

In terms of mitigation, Belgium’s 2024 updated National Energy and Climate Plan has committed the country to a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels, but there are regional implementation disparities between Flanders, Wallonia, and Brussels.26 Coordination remains a serious challenge in ensuring coherent emission-reduction strategies across jurisdictions. The European Commission and Directorate-General of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) assert the need for close linkage between adaptation finance and mitigation strategies to avoid maladaptation investments and minimize future risks of displacement.27

Necessary Changes

Reducing present vulnerabilities and preventing future displacement will require several policy and governance reforms in Belgium. First, non-stationary risk models—accounting for evolving rainfall patterns rather than historical averages—should be embedded in flood-defense design standards.28 Second, there is a need for managed retreat and planned relocation programs for repeatedly affected floodplain communities; rebuilding needs to be conducted in a manner that does not reinforce exposure.29 Third, a national monitoring system in regard to climate-induced displacement should be established to stay ahead of internal migration trends rather than simply responding to them.30 Fourth, expanding social protection systems—emergency housing and mental health support—will be required to support vulnerable households in recovering from disasters.31 Finally, Belgium’s adaptation planning must explicitly connect economic resilience with human security.

In this, there is a need to acknowledge the historical and current role of Belgium in global climate injustice. Belgium is an early industrialized country with high cumulative emissions and a colonial legacy linked to extractive economies that have contributed to the unequal global structures now determining climate vulnerability. This calls for more than mere domestic adaptation; rather, it requires the support of climate reparations through financial transfers and systemic reform. Belgium should call for and contribute to equitable international financing mechanisms, such as the Loss and Damage Fund, while supporting the reshaping of global financial institutions toward greater equity, transparency, and inclusiveness. In turn, this would free up fiscal space and grant autonomy for climate-vulnerable nations to build resilience on their own terms and in pursuit of low-carbon development paths.

In all, the experience of Belgium shows that vulnerability to climate change does not stop at income thresholds. Even in advanced economies, social and spatial inequalities determine who bears the brunt of environmental shocks. This underlines that addressing climate-induced displacement requires not only technical adaptation but also inclusive governance, equitable recovery, and proactive community planning.
 

Visit the Database

Belgium at a glance

Governance and Capacity Building for Climate Resilience
*Key: 1 = low risk, 10 = high risk.
Climate Change Risk Score
Climate Change Risk Score
2.1/10
Hazard & Exposure
Floods
Floods
6.2/10
Cyclones
Cyclones
0/10
Droughts
Droughts
1.1/10
Hazard & Exposure Total
Hazard & Exposure Total
1.9/10
Vulnerability
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
0.2/10
Vulnerable Groups
Vulnerable Groups
4.4/10
Vulnerability Total
Vulnerability Total
2.6/10
Lack of Coping Capacity
Institutional Level
Institutional Level
2.7/10
Infrastructure Level
Infrastructure Level
0.9/10
Lack of Coping Capacity Total
Lack of Coping Capacity Total
1.8/10
Price Tag of Financing Climate Resilience Projects
Financial Needs for Mitigation
Financial Needs for Mitigation
No Data
Financial Needs for Adaptation
Financial Needs for Adaptation
No Data
Total Financial Needs
Total Financial Needs
No Data
Country’s NDCs Goals or Compliance
Historical Emissions
Historical Emissions
3,795 MtCO₂e
Total Share of Global GHG Emissions
Total Share of Global GHG Emissions
0.22%
NDCs Status
NDCs Status
Submitted New or Updated NDC with Reduced Total Emissions
GHG Target
GHG Target
At least 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990.The following information in this section is subject to revision in light of the enhanced target.“The respective emissions reductions in force at time of this submission
Global Displacement Data
Climate Induced Displaced Persons
Climate Induced Displaced Persons
16,228
Climatic Events
Climatic Events
Climatic Events
Flood; Mass Movement; Wildfire; Storm
FULL PROFILE PAGE

Download a copy of the report on climate refugees to read later.

DOWNLOAD PDF SPANISH VERSION