Introduction to The Bahamas

The Bahamas is a Caribbean archipelago with a population of approximately 400,000 (2023),1 16% of which are located in rural regions.2 Despite being one of the wealthier Caribbean nations, with a GDP per capita of over $34,000 USD,3 the country faces significant income inequality, the highest in the Caribbean,4 with pockets of persistent poverty concentrated in the more remote reaches of the islands. Much of the Bahamas’s present-day political economy is nested in its history. The islands are situated at a crucial juncture, the Atlantic Ocean’s entrance into the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the broader Central American region. Its location places the island at a pivot point of history, it being the site of  Christopher Columbus’s first landing in the Americas.5 Additionally, early European efforts to establish settlements were characterized by fierce competition among nations, punctuated by extended periods of lawlessness and piracy at the expense of the region’s indigenous population, bearing trends of corruption that persist to this day.6 The Bahamas has a tropical climate, characterized by hot, humid summers and mild winters, with its location in the Atlantic hurricane belt making it highly susceptible to extreme weather events like hurricanes. The Bahamian economy is heavily dependent on tourism, which accounts for more than 50% of GDP and employs over half of the population.7 This dependency on tourism, coupled with its location in a region prone to increasingly severe hurricanes, and limited capacity of its most vulnerable communities to adapt due to centuries of subjugation underscores the complex climate challenges The Bahamas faces.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement  

Though The Bahamas is making progress in its response to climate change, the urgency and scale of its adaptation needs remain significant. The islands are considered the 74th most vulnerable country and the 89th most prepared to address climate challenges as ranked by the ND-GAIN Index.8  

Topologically, The Bahamas are especially vulnerable to rising sea levels, with more than 80% of the land lying at an elevation of just one meter or less above sea level,9 with sea levels projected to rise significantly above the global average. By 2039, sea levels in The Bahamas are expected to increase by 12.09 cm, compared to the global average of 8.47 cm. This trend continues, with projections for the end of the century anticipating sea levels to rise by 56.17 cm, far exceeding the global average of 40.73 cm.10 In terms of population exposure to flooding, data indicates that 68% of the Bahamian population will be affected in the next decade, significantly higher than the global averages, which are projected at 18%.10 Over most recent decades, The Bahamas has experienced a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, and the mass displacements that come as a result. Between 2008 and 2015, 3,300 internal displacements attributed to storms and wildfires were reported, a figure that increased exponentially between 2016 and 2023 to 23,330 displacements.11 Hurricane Dorian in 2019 was one of the most severe climate events in the islands’ recent history, resulting in a death toll of at least 74, with 63 deaths from Abaco and 22 from Grand Bahama, while 245 people remain missing several years later. Alongside the tragic loss of lives, 29,500 people were left homeless and/or without employment.12 The compound effects of limited land space for refuge, repeated exposure to disasters, and the destruction of infrastructure have exacerbated the challenges of climate-induced displacement throughout the Bahamian islands.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis 

The Bahamian economy is notably dependent on tourism, financial services, and agriculture. The climate crisis threatens to undermine these sectors, especially tourism, which is vulnerable to both direct impacts from hurricanes and the long-term effects of rising sea levels on beaches and resorts. This is further exemplified by the prominence of this industry along the coastline, with 80% of hotels situated within 250 meters of the high-water line, placing the nation’s tourism sector at risk from even modest sea-level rise.13 Even a moderate sea-level rise of 1 meter is expected to damage at least half of the country's tourist resorts. As a result, the tourism industry could incur annual losses of nearly USD 900 million by 2050.13 The direct costs of climate disasters in the Bahamian islands are also significant. Over the past 20 years, The Bahamas has incurred nearly three times the hurricane-related losses and economic damage compared to other Caribbean nations, amounting to $6.7 billion. This figure represents over 50% of The Bahamas' GDP, significantly higher than the 17% and 2% of GDP losses experienced by Jamaica and Barbados, respectively.14 Hurricane Dorian alone caused an estimated $3.4 billion in damages, equivalent to nearly 25% of the nation’s GDP.15  Beyond the economic toll, as sea levels rise and extreme weather events become more common, arable land is being lost, and saltwater intrusion is contaminating freshwater resources, further threatening local food production.16 Currently, The Bahamas imports nearly 90 percent of its food at an annual cost of approximately $1 billion, with the United States as prime beneficiary of the islands’ globalized food market. The increasing reliance on food imports, coupled with rising global food prices contributes directly to the Bahamian islands’  hotbed of food insecurity.17

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

The Bahamas has committed to several international climate agreements, including the Paris Agreement, and has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030.18 To address the islands’ declining freshwater availability, the Bahamian government is also working to expand its Saltwater Reverse Osmosis (SWRO) facilities, which currently supply over 50% of The Bahamas' drinking water.19 This initiative aims to decrease reliance on fossil fuels and strengthen climate resilience in the water and energy sectors, alongside the islands’ plans to achieve 30% renewable energy integration by 2030.20 Additionally, The Bahamas is focusing on enhancing coastal defenses and restoring mangroves to protect against storm surges and flooding, setting to plant one million mangroves by 2026 as part of a comprehensive 36-month restoration project.21 In terms of industry emissions, The Bahamas aims to transition two of its key sectors, tourism, and transportation, to more sustainable practices, including the adoption of electric vehicles and eco-friendly tourism initiatives, with marine protected areas, such as the Exuma Cays Land and Sea Park, limiting certain activities to safeguard marine ecosystems and wildlife.22

Necessary Changes

The Bahamas, akin to other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), confronts the inequitable burden of navigating the consequences of emissions from high-polluting nations worldwide. Although the government appears to be taking steps to address this challenge, substantial efforts and increased transparency are essential to guarantee the effectiveness of such initiatives. In recent years, The Bahamas' has announced plans to enter the blue carbon market, which involves selling carbon credits generated from the conservation and restoration of marine ecosystems like mangroves. While the initiative claims to generate revenue whilst combating the climate crisis, the plan may overpromise on its climate benefits and could potentially undermine local communities by prioritizing carbon markets over the needs of the people who rely on these ecosystems,23 all while permitting high-pollution nations to continue to transfer the burden of climate action onto more vulnerable, and less destructive, countries. Without proper regulation, transparency, and equitable benefit-sharing, the blue carbon market will inevitably benefit private investors as opposed to the Bahamian communities and environment it is meant to protect. Bahamians must additionally address the legal and political frameworks that continue to endanger the islands’ ecological future, namely the Crown Proceedings Act, which protects corporations from being sued for environmental damage. This law, rooted in the colonial era, limits corporate accountability for environmental harm, as it requires that lawsuits against the government or its entities be filed in a specific manner that often shields these actors.24  Legal reform to update or repeal this law is needed to ensure that Bahamians can even begin to effectively name and prosecute those responsible for environmental damage to the islands. The path forward will be manifold, requiring the synthesis of political, social, and legal action that will allow The Bahamas to sustain and expand its progress in addressing the crisis on its shores.