Introduction to Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is a landlocked country in the South Caucasus region of Eurasia. Its population of approximately 10.2 million1 is about 45% rural.2 Azerbaijan experiences a mix of temperate and semi-arid climates, with hot summers and mild winters. The country’s diverse geography includes the Caspian Sea coast, the Caucasus Mountains, and expansive plains. Historically, Azerbaijan has been a crucial point of trade and cultural exchange, particularly due to its position along the Silk Road. Azerbaijan’s economy is heavily dependent on the oil and gas industry, which accounts for over 90% of its exports and approximately 48% of its GDP3 of over $72 billion USD (2023).4 This reliance on fossil fuels has positioned Azerbaijan as a significant player in the global energy market, simultaneously increasing the country’s vulnerability to the effects of the climate crisis, particularly in terms of environmental degradation and the need for economic diversification. Conflict-induced displacement has been a persistent challenge in Azerbaijan and the surrounding region. Refugee and internally displaced persons communities are especially at risk from climate impacts, as they often face poor living conditions, economic instability, and limited access to public services.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Azerbaijan is considered to be well-positioned to respond to the effects of climate change, ranking as the 117th most vulnerable country and the 79th most ready country by the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index.5 The Caspian Sea region and mountainous areas are particularly susceptible to climate impacts such as rising sea levels, droughts, and landslides. Severe droughts currently occur once every 50 years on average. However, this frequency is expected to rise sharply with increasing global temperatures. In higher global emissions scenarios (RCP 6–8.5), the likelihood of drought is projected to increase dramatically—from an average probability of 2% (1986–2005) to between 73% and 85% by the end of the century.6  Disaster-induced displacement remains a significant concern in Azerbaijan, with flooding identified as the most prominent climate-related risk. Estimates predict that nearly 40,000 people are expected to be displaced annually in Azerbaijan due to flood events,7 with over 40% of affected people located in Aran.8 The 2010 floods in Azerbaijan were the most detrimental in recent history, affecting over 60,000 people, causing 40 deaths alongside 70,012 hectares of land inundated and at least 5000 houses partially or completely destroyed.7 Extreme climate events such as this, compounded with factors such as limited availability of arable land and water resources, exacerbate the challenges faced by the Azerbaijani community. 

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

Azerbaijan’s economic growth has been largely driven largely by its oil and gas sector, but this growth has been uneven and has not fully translated into widespread economic prosperity, and it has also contributed to the land and air degradation that threatens the country’s ecological future. The economic costs of climate impacts in Azerbaijan are significant. The 2010 floods alone caused over $360 million USD of damages to public infrastructure, homes and land,9 with the average annual loss due to flood risks estimated to be $58 million USD.7 In 1995, a series of floods in Azerbaijan impacted over 1.65 million people and caused total damages estimated between $27 million and $30 million.7 More recently, the 2020 drought alone led to an estimated loss of 15% in agricultural output, which in turn affected food prices and food security. Coastal regions around the Caspian Sea face the threat of rising sea levels, which could result in further economic losses in key sectors such as fisheries and tourism–potential losses that have yet to be calculated. Additionally, non-economic costs, such as increased food insecurity and reduced water availability, are expected to disproportionately affect rural and marginalized communities.10

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

In its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Azerbaijan committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. At COP 26, Azerbaijan further announced an updated target of a 40% GHG emissions reduction by 2050.11 The country is focusing on mitigation strategies that include the development of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, as part of its efforts to transition away from a reliance on fossil fuels. To address climate-induced displacement, Azerbaijan has initiated adaptation strategies such as improving water management systems and enhancing agricultural resilience through modern irrigation techniques. However, progress has been slow, and more efforts are needed to protect vulnerable communities.In terms of industries and emissions, Azerbaijan is working on improving energy efficiency in its oil and gas sector and is gradually expanding its renewable energy capacity. The government has set a target to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix to 30% by 2030, though challenges remain in scaling these efforts effectively.

Necessary Changes

Azerbaijan already has a framework for resilience and mitigation, supported by existing policies and a commitment to international climate goals. However, it is necessary for the country and the international community to strengthen the implementation, efficacy, and funding of planned projects and future strategies. This could include increasing investment in renewable energy infrastructure, expanding adaptation projects to support vulnerable communities, and enhancing regional cooperation on climate issues.

Justice for particularly disaffected communities, such as rural populations and those displaced by climate events, must include their active participation in decision-making processes. Calls for such inclusion are growing, particularly from local NGOs and civil society organizations. Internationally backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the ongoing work within Azerbaijan to ensure that the voices of affected workers and communities are amplified in the process of a just transition. Through this collaborative approach, Azerbaijan can sustain and expand its progress toward a more resilient and climate-adaptive future.