Introduction to Armenia

Armenia is a landlocked country located in the South Caucasus region of Eurasia. Its population of approximately 2.77 million (2023)1  is about 36% rural.2 Armenia experiences a variety of climates, from arid and semi-arid in the lowlands to alpine in the highlands. Its topography is highly mountainous, with the Lesser Caucasus mountain range dominating its landscape. Historically, Armenia has faced significant turmoil, most notably with the Armenia Genocide. The end of the First World War brought the disintegration of both the  Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires, the latter of which led political leaders in the emerging Turkish state to launch a program aimed at exterminating much of the ethnic Armenian population as part of a broader effort to create a more ethnically and religiously homogeneous Turkish state.3 The impacts of this reverberate through Armenia’s present -ay social structure, political standing, and inevitably, its climate future. Today's Armenia is an industrial-agrarian country, with its main sectors of its GDP of $19.4 billion USD4 consisting of agriculture – 31.1 %, industrial production – 21.8 %.5 Armenia's unique geopolitical and economic conditions play a critical role in the nation’s ability to navigate the impacts of the climate crisis, and offer key insights into how regional conflict and genocide will continue to shape the world’s ecological future.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Similar to its neighbors in the region, Armenia is considered to be well positioned to adapt to ongoing and anticipated climate impacts. Armenia is the 138th most vulnerable country and the 55th most ready country as ranked by the ND-GAIN Country Index. This index, which measures vulnerability and readiness to adapt to climate change, notes Armenia’s agricultural and dam capacity, alongside its lack of engagement in international environmental conventions, as the country’s most significant vulnerabilities.6 The country's mountainous regions and rural populations are particularly susceptible to climate impacts. Between 1929-2016, it experienced an average temperature rise of 1.23°C, while annual precipitation has decreased by an average of 9%, resulting in the rapid shrinking of the glaciers in Armenia’s mountain region, and stress on its aging dam infrastructure. Over most decades, Armenia has experienced an increase in extreme weather events, including severe droughts, floods, and wet landmass movements. Approximately 4.1% of the country’s area is exposed to landslide risk, making over one-third of its communities vulnerable. Large areas face drought risk, and some areas, particularly the Ararat and Shirak valleys, also face flood risk, with about 40,000 people affected by flooding each year.7 Extreme flooding in May 2024 struck the Lori and Tavush regions, resulting in significant damage to infrastructure, homes, livestock, and businesses, killing at least four people and displacing nearly 300.8  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The economic costs of climate impacts in Armenia are substantial. Over more recent decades, urbanization and shifting climatic conditions have led to a fourfold increase in economic losses in Armenia, jeopardizing the country's most vulnerable populations. For the nearly 35% of Armenians employed in agriculture, the growing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is an ever-present threat.9  Between 1994 and 2013, the average annual damage and losses were US$76.5 million, this amount including the impacts of 19 floods, droughts, and other extreme weather-related events throughout the period.10 Long-lasting market effects are also substantial. For example, the 2000 drought caused an estimated $110 million USD in damage and triggered a seed shortage in the years that followed, incurring an additional $43 million USD in agricultural production losses. At the time, the agricultural sector accounted for 42% of employment and one-third of Armenia’s GDP.10  This was further exemplified in 2006, when severe droughts decreased cereal crop production by more than 35 percent from the previous year, forcing Armenia to import cereals to meet its basic needs requirement.10

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Armenia signed and ratified the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 and its First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2015. Armenia has also ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on “Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer” in 2019 and has committed to phase out the use of HFCs from 2024 onwards, seeking a total reduction of 80%–85% by 2045.11 Further, Armenia has established an unconditional mitigation target of reducing emissions by 40% below 1990 levels and adjusted the NDC timeframe from 2015-2050 to 2021-2030. The Armenian government also aims to expand its solar energy capacity from the current 59.57 MW to 1000 MW by 2030 and increase forest cover to 12.9% of its territory within the same period.12  Further, the government is working to combat the impacts of the climate crisis by modernizing its Hydrometeorological Service to enhance the country's ability to monitor and respond to climate-related risks. This project aims to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting and early warning systems, ultimately increasing Armenia's resilience to climate disasters.9 In addition to these efforts, more localized action is taking place in the classroom, where Armenian youth, with support from UNICEF, are creating practical solutions to combat climate change, such as developing waste management systems and promoting renewable energy projects in their communities.13

Necessary Changes

Despite Armenia's existing political and social will to address climate change, this cannot be accomplished effectively without fostering lasting peace in the region, particularly along its borders. Azerbaijan has launched an "environmental offensive" against Armenia, accusing it of causing ecological damage in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.14 This includes allegations of illegal mining and deforestation, which Azerbaijan claims are exacerbating environmental degradation and contributing to the broader climate crisis in the region. Though these accusations exist as part of a broader strategy to draw international criticism towards the legitimacy of the Armenian people and state, the Armenian government, in its defense against Azeri occupation and annexation,  must also strive to be just and equitable stewards of the land. This may include increased transparency around its environmental practices in Nagorno-Karabakh and introducing reforestation, responsible mining, and land rehabilitation in the region. Similarly, there exists ongoing strategic competition over water resources between Armenia and Azerbaijan, underscoring the critical importance of shared and equitable governance in the region.15 As rising temperatures continue to exacerbate water scarcity, Armenia must intensify its efforts to mitigate these effects, ensuring that future conflicts over this vital resource are minimized.