Albania

Introduction to Albania

Albania is a small southeastern European country on the Adriatic and Ionian Seas with a population of approximately 2.8 million—about 42 percent of which is rural—and a GDP per capita of about 5,350 USD as of 2019 according to the World Bank.1 Its topography consists of rugged mountains—over 70 percent of the territory—a long, low-lying coastline, and a Mediterranean climate that increasingly records weather extremes.2 While Albania is a negligible emitter of greenhouse gases, the country remains highly vulnerable to climate change because of its specific geography—characterized by steep terrain, concentrated coastal settlements, and exposure to multiple natural hazards—and socioeconomic profile, marked by rural dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, limited adaptive capacity, and infrastructural constraints.3 According to the ND-GAIN Index, Albania is ranked in the moderate vulnerability range due to both high exposure to climate risks and limited readiness to adapt institutional capacities.4 Its economic reliance on hydropower, agriculture, and coastal tourism also increases Albania’s vulnerability to climate change, drought cycles, and hazards at the coast.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Climate-related hazards have increased noticeably in Albania over the last few decades. While the country reported 10 significant natural disasters from 1980 to 2000, this figure jumped to 25 from 2000 to 2020. This is an indicator of substantial intensification of exposure to climate-linked risks. These trends reflect a wider regional pattern of more frequent and intense hydrometerological events in the Western Balkans. 

Albania is regularly hit by flooding, drought, heatwaves, wildfires, and landslides.5 Climate projections in Albania’s draft 2024 National Inventory Document indicate increasing drought frequency and intensity, declining seasonal rainfall, reduced snowpack in highland areas, and a high risk of wildfires—most notably in central and coastal municipalities.6

Displacement linked to climate-related disasters has also become a significant concern. According to IOM and IDMC regional data, nearly 38,000 new internal displacements were recorded across the Western Balkans between 2019 and 2023, with approximately 88 percent occurring in Albania—reflecting the country’s high exposure to recurrent flooding, landslides, and wildfire events.7 Floods alone account for about 14 percent of Albania’s disaster-related displacements, while wildfires and severe storms contribute smaller but recurring shares.8

More recent analysis from the Census and Economic Information Center (CEIC) and the World Bank shows that Albania recorded around 13,000 new internally displaced persons in 2023 due to climate-related disasters.9 Although this figure reflects year-to-year variability rather than a single extreme event, it demonstrates the cumulative impact of recurring hazards including seasonal flooding, prolonged drought, riverbank erosion, and crop failures. These slow-onset pressures are often poorly monitored, meaning the full extent of climate-induced mobility in Albania is likely underestimated.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The socioeconomic cost of the climate crisis in Albania is significant and growing fast. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), flooding in major agricultural areas—most notably Shkodër and Lezhë—has resulted in around 100 million USD in agricultural losses over the last ten years.10 It is projected that unless significant adaptation measures are taken, Albania will suffer a loss of up to 800 to 900 million USD annually in agriculture by 2050 due to shifts in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature.10 

Infrastructure is equally at high risk. Government and independent estimates put climate-sensitive damage to transportation infrastructure at roughly 147 million USD annually; 84 percent due to riverine flooding, 11 percent to landslides, and 5 percent to seismic events.11 On a macroscopic scale, the recent regional climate assessment by the World Bank warns that Albania could incur GDP losses of as much as 7 percent and for the high-impact scenarios, 15.7 percent of GDP by 2050.12 The communities most affected are those already facing poverty, reduced mobility, and environmental degradation, with a particular focus on rural and mountainous populations.13 These findings underscore how climate-exacerbated events place significant strain on state capacity, social protection systems, and recovery programs.12

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Albania has undertaken a number of resilience and climate-adaptation measures, however, significant gaps remain. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has supported the development of the Leadership Academy Programme at the municipal level for eight municipalities: Elbasan, Durrës, Kukës, Krujë, Fier, Vlorë, Gjirokastër, and Përmet. These initiatives have included training 338 municipal staff, integrating climate-risk assessments into urban planning, budgetary reform, and enhanced emergency-response capacities.

At the national level, Albania is implementing its second National Adaptation Plan, with a focus on agriculture, transport, energy, tourism, and urban development. Its enhanced NDC is dedicated to emission reductions via renewable energy expansion, energy-efficiency programs, and land use planning.10 However, financing remains one of the critical challenges: the World Bank estimates that over the next ten years, 6 billion USD is required for climate-resilient infrastructure, flood defenses, and ecosystem protection.

Governance has begun to improve through institutional reforms, helping the country’s capacity to address these issues. Based on a 2019 civil-protection law, national, regional, and local risk assessments are required every three years in Albania. A standardized disaster-loss database must also be maintained, along with coordination of risk-reduction strategies across government agencies. These measures represent important steps toward building evidence based adaptation planning.

Necessary Changes

To effectively reduce climate-induced displacement risk, Albania must significantly strengthen the policy, financial, and institutional foundations of its climate-adaptation strategy. Improving disaster-displacement monitoring is a critical first step, as existing systems remain fragmented and do not consistently distinguish between climate-related and seismic hazards; adopting a standardized national system aligned with IDMC methodologies would support more accurate and targeted interventions.6 Albania would also benefit from scaling nature-based solutions, such as wetland restoration, riparian buffers, and reforestation, which offer cost-effective flood and erosion protection while supporting biodiversity and rural livelihoods.

Mobilizing green finance will be crucial in addressing the estimated six billion USD in adaptation funding needed over the next decade. While current assessments indicate that nearly 85 percent of this invested must come from private sources, relying primarily on private capital is neither sufficient nor equitable given Albania’s existing fiscal and institutional constraints. Instead, closing the adaptation financing gap will require more robust public-oriented strategies, including expanded international climate grants, concessional financing, and debt-relief mechanisms that reduce the financial burden on vulnerable countries. Public revenue raised through progressive taxation, including potential levies on extractive or high-emission sectors, could further strengthen the national adaptation budget. Such measures would not only diversify funding streams but also reduce dependence on private markets, supporting a more stable, just, and long-term approach to climate resilience. 

Specifically, this would call for strengthening social protection systems—most especially for rural and poor communities that bear the brunt of droughts, floods, and wildfires—so as to build resilience through broader early-warning systems, emergency aid, and post-disaster recovery support. Finally, Albania should deepen local climate governance by extending local adaptation plans to high-risk municipalities and embedding long-term climate education within public institutions, schools, and planning processes. Together, these reforms would reduce displacement pressures, safeguard vulnerable households, and strengthen Albania’s overall resilience to future climate shocks.  
 

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Albania at a glance

Governance and Capacity Building for Climate Resilience
*Key: 1 = low risk, 10 = high risk.
Climate Change Risk Score
Climate Change Risk Score
3.1/10
Hazard & Exposure
Floods
Floods
4.6/10
Cyclones
Cyclones
0/10
Droughts
Droughts
4.4/10
Hazard & Exposure Total
Hazard & Exposure Total
3.4/10
Vulnerability
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
2.3/10
Vulnerable Groups
Vulnerable Groups
1.7/10
Vulnerability Total
Vulnerability Total
2/10
Lack of Coping Capacity
Institutional Level
Institutional Level
5.7/10
Infrastructure Level
Infrastructure Level
2.3/10
Lack of Coping Capacity Total
Lack of Coping Capacity Total
4.2/10
Price Tag of Financing Climate Resilience Projects
Financial Needs for Mitigation
Financial Needs for Mitigation
No Data
Financial Needs for Adaptation
Financial Needs for Adaptation
No Data
Total Financial Needs
Total Financial Needs
No Data
Country’s NDCs Goals or Compliance
Historical Emissions
Historical Emissions
253 MtCO₂e
Total Share of Global GHG Emissions
Total Share of Global GHG Emissions
0.02%
NDCs Status
NDCs Status
Submitted New or Updated NDC with Reduced Total Emissions
GHG Target
GHG Target
Albania commits to reducing its emissions by 20.9% by 2030 compared to BAU.
Global Displacement Data
Climate Induced Displaced Persons
Climate Induced Displaced Persons
11,905
Climatic Events
Climatic Events
Climatic Events
Flood; Mass Movement
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