Never before have as many countries simultaneously been in the midst of the systematic undermining of institutions and rights, what scholars call “democratic backsliding.” Last year marked 25 years of democratic decline globally. Wherever anti-democracy or illiberal movements have captured state power and set about transforming government, it has become normal to ask: Where are we on the authoritarian timeline? The timeline refers to the expanse between now and a point in the future when the new system is locked in. Many experts call this authoritarian consolidation. For those speaking of timelines or “the clock,” it is sometimes ominously referred to as “midnight.”
There are many good reasons that not only political analysts, but a whole range of concerned people, ask where they are in the timeline. For pro-democracy activists and strategists, such assessments help with setting priorities and goals—where must movements put concerted attention, what must they achieve (or prevent), and by when. For groups vulnerable to abuse or persecution, thinking about where one is in an authoritarian timeline can be necessary for evaluating personal safety and risk, and making important life choices.
We can look across contexts and historical periods for insight on the authoritarian playbook and how timelines unfold. However, history does not simply repeat itself. Authoritarian movements are also studying each other, interacting, and adapting those playbooks based on what they learn. In this essay, we ask: To what extent can grand arcs capture the status of today’s far-right authoritarian movements? And what, if anything, can we say about the direction of democratic or authoritarian travel in our current moment?
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Editor's note: The ideas expressed in this blog are not necessarily those of the Othering & Belonging Institute or UC Berkeley, but belong to the author.
